Dam in Ukraine

I have several substacks in the hopper that are lined up for completing but have been involved in 2 local initiatives that I have found a bit taxing.

Do you roll up your sleeves locally to make a difference. Well you should. In Canada join Action4canada. Your postal code is all you need to get yourself into volunteering and meeting other like minded individuals.

I think the organization should be copied like cookie cutters everywhere. It's national and then the efforts are reproduced at the regional and Municipality. You guys have game! Bring it. It's time to get to know how you can drill down to change the course of history. In the US, I find local action equally inspiring.

One of my favorite substackers sent this out last night. Do you have a garden. Remember my video Hunger Games? So much of what we are seeing is modeled there. If you ask I'll post a link below to Hunger Games.

JOHN PAUL discusses the terrible human impact but also points out the possible agricultural devastation to the bread basket.

The Nova Kakhovka Dam has been destroyed in Southern Ukraine.

Breaking news.

JOHN PAUL

The significance per the analysis of Faytuks.

Worst case modelling for Nova Kakhovka dam break (UPDATED)

When the wave hits the Antonivsky Bridge it will be between 4 and 5 meters of height. Wheter the severly damaged bridge would withstand the increased waterflow is not modeled.

The wave will be higher further upstream, and both speed and height of the wave is higher closer to the dam. It will take approximately 19 hours for the wave to hit Cherson City in this model, as the water spreads out over the lowlands and does not just rush forwards. The flooding will be much worse on the left side of the river (left/right side is when you are looking in the direction of the river flow, in this case towards the Black Sea – generally in this case the left side is the south or east side of the Dnipro). Most of Cherson City will not flood, but the harbour and the docklands including the island in the south of the city will be flooded.

Several smaller towns or villages on both sides of the Dnipro will be flooded and when the wave hits it will probably be very dangerous and lives will be lost.

There will be a backswell up the Inhulets river. In 4 – 5 days the swell will cause some flooding up the river Bug up to Mykolaiv. The isthmus at the end of the bay outside the Dnipro delta will be severly flooded and almost completely drowned, although this will start approximately 50 hours after the dam break.

The modelled flow will peak at 14 000 cubic meters of water per second (m3/s), which could be compared to the Niagara Falls average flow of 2 400 m3/s the Dnipro average according to Wikipedia of 1 670 m3/s. The flow will diminish over time.

Do you remember when I stated, many times, in my Beyond Mathematical Odds series to pay attention to possible tipping points ? Well, this is one of those. I will bring updates on this in a few days, but for now, you should pay attention and prepare. This event has major significance beyond merely changing the dynamics of the conflict.

It has the possibility of affecting one of the nuclear plants, and storage of waste fuel, but my main concern besides the loss of civilian life is… agricultural loss.

By hook or by crook, the West will get their escalation I care to guess.”